If A Tree Falls In The Forest... A Dodgers-Cardinals NLDS Preview

by: Harrison Leonard

I don't want to pretend as though the Los Angeles Dodgers have an edge going into tonight's National League Division Series against the St. Louis Cardinals. For weeks now, the "underdog" label has been applied to the Dodgers with respect to this series, and the branding is probably a fair one. At the same time, though, to suggest that there is no contest between the two clubs, to assume that the Cards have the series locked up, is equally as asinine as foolishly expecting Los Angeles domination.

The Redbirds' seemingly endless supply of weapons - Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright - have been well chronicled, but the Dodgers possess some noteworthy advantages over St. Louis heading into the NLDS. Still, you would never know that from reading Fox Sports. Or ESPN. Or just about any other source of mindless east coast baseball punditry your mind can fathom. Since the Dodgers secured the National League Western Division crown Saturday night, the baseball world has been inundated with "experts" who have already pronounced Los Angeles D.O.A. in their series against St. Louis.

With the appreciation that most baseball commentators are douche bags, let's examine four popular yet flawed premises about this NLDS matchup:

Claim: The Cardinals have the momentum going into this series; the Dodgers sputtered in September and backed into the playoffs!

Reality Check: I don't want to pretend like September didn't blow for the Dodgers; watching that final road trip was more painful than seeing a Special Olympics contestant wrestle a bear. But, as Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness has astutely noted, Los Angeles had a better final month than St. Louis, with the Dodgers going 16-13 in September/October, in contrast to the Cards' 14-16 record during that time. Point to take away: The Dodgers sucked, but the Cardinals sucked harder.

Claim: St. Louis pounded Los Angeles during the regular season, beating them five times in seven games!

Reality Check: True. In 2008, the Dodgers' NLDS opponent, the Chicago Cubs, also beat Los Angeles in five of seven regular season contests. How did that work out for the Cubbies? In 2008, five of the seven regular season Dodgers-Cubs games were decided by two runs or fewer. This season, four of the seven regular season games between the Dodgers and Cardinals were decided by two runs or fewer. The message is: for the most part, those games weren't cakewalks for either club, and the LAD-STL season series record shouldn't be considered indicative of what to expect beginning tonight. Point to take away: History proves time and again that the playoffs are a crapshoot and anything can happen. If you don't buy it, ask the '88 Dodgers.

Claim: Cardinals pitching has been dominant this season, while Dodgers pitching has been spotty at best. St. Louis' one-two punch of Carpenter and Wainwright is going to destroy the Dodgers!

Reality Check: Carpenter and Wainwright have been nothing short of awesome, there's no debate about that. But you can't discount what Los Angeles has done this year on the bump. Sons Of Steve Garvey has a great post highlighting some of the Dodgers more striking statistical achievements this year, including posting a major league-best team ERA, WHIP, and BAA, beating out the Cardinals in each category. Those are not insignificant numbers, and each will factor into this series.

Randy Wolf and Clayton Kershaw should not be underestimated. Randy Wolf is eleventh among all big league starters with a .611 winning percentage, and the Dodgers are 22-11 in games he started. Wolf led the majors with sixteen no-decisions this season, many of which saw Wolf exit the game in line for the win, only to have the 'pen blow the lead later. If Wolf had received decisions for those sixteen games and gone 20-13 instead of 11-7, do you think biased baseball commentators and cynical Dodgers fans would be complaining as loudly about the Dodgers' perceived pitching woes? I think not. If anything, Randy Wolf's name would be bandied about in Cy Young Award discussions.

If this doesn't call to attention the absolute irrelevance of the W-L pitching stat in baseball, I don't know what does.

Clayton Kershaw is the proud owner of a 2.79 ERA on the season, good for seventh best in all of baseball. And for a two-month period from the beginning to June until the end of July, Kersh was the best starting pitcher in baseball, period. On July 29th, Kershaw dominated the Cards in St. Louis for eight scoreless innings, striking out seven, and allowing only four hits and two walks in that time. But the Dodger bullpen blew the game in the ninth, and the Dodgers ended up losing 3-2 in fifteen innings. Almost worse, Kershaw didn't receive the W he so richly deserved (again, the win-loss record is killing me!).

Wolf seems to yield the best results when he pitches "backwards" (i.e., curveball, fastball, changeup). Because he can't blow batters away, dropping that slow, looping bender of his in for strike one allows him to change speeds more craftily. If Wolf gets ahead of batters with two strikes, watch for him to punch out right-handers with changeups away, and freeze left-handers with fastballs cutting inside. Kershaws lanky build and deceptive wind up allow him to throw his fastball over the plate and still blow it by nearly everyone he faces. The keys to Kerhaw's success on Thursday afternoon will rest in his ability to trust his fastball. You will know he's in trouble if he starts using his overhand curve and slider to heavily. If Wolf sticks to the game plan that has given him the most success this season, and if Kershaw can keep his emotions in check, they are going to prove a lot of baseball "authorities" wrong.

Besides, when you've got Ronald Belisario, Hong-Chih Kuo, George Sherrill, and Jonathan Broxton waiting in your bullpen, you only need your starter to go five or six innings-- anything above and beyond is gravy. Seriously, where did all these pathetic fantasies about starters having to go deep in the playoffs come from? I'm telling you, the Dodgers pitching staff may surprise a lot of people. Point to take away: No matter what Steve Phillips wants you to believe, successful pitchers aren't made by wins and losses.

Claim: The Cardinals have King Albert and Matt Holliday! Andre Ethier is awesome, but Manny is slumping, and the Dodger offense has looked streaky overall!

Reality Check: Believe it or not, the Cards have sucked this season hitting against left-handed pitching (well, except for Pujols and Holliday, dammit). In case you haven't put two and two together, Randy Wolf and Clayton Kershaw are both southpaws. With Kuo and Sherrill coming out of the 'pen, if they can shut down or at least curtail the impact of Pujols and Holliday, the Dodgers' strong left-handed pitching should neutralize the Cardinals in a crucial way.

Well, that's all I have for now. It should be an exciting series. I'm not one for making predictions, but I will say that I expect this series to go five games. I will leave you with two big favors you can do yourself during the Dodgers 2009 playoff run:

1. Visit Dodger blogs!

Dodger Thoughts, the aforementioned Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness and Sons Of Steve Garvey, and True Blue LA are just a few of the many fresh, intelligent Dodger blogs out there for your enjoyment and edification. If you think this post was any good, you're going to love these sites, because they are way cooler than me. And take advantage of their sobering analysis, because you're going to need some balance after watching the blowhards on TBS and FOX for the next couple of weeks.

2. Listen to Vin Scully call the games!

The good news is that Vinny is calling every postseason game on 790 KABC. Well actually, he's calling the first three and final three innings of every game (plus any extra innings in tie games), with Rick Monday and Charley Steiner calling the middle three. But hey, six-plus innings of Vin Scully is better than six-plus seconds of Chip Caray. The bad news is that, thanks to MLB's exclusivity deals with TBS and FOX, you won't be able to watch any Dodgers simulcast on television. That means no Vin Scully on TV, only radio. So I, for one, will be muting the television, and letting Vin narrate the pictures that silently flash before my eyes. The fact that there is a ten second television delay from the radio broadcast won't hinder my enjoyment of listening to Vin call what could be his final postseason, and if you love America and all that is Holy, you won't let it, either.

Much thanks to TATU for asking me to write this piece, and thanks to you for reading it.